From Rules-Based Order to Power Politics: The Iran War’s Global Impact

The current U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran is not simply destabilizing the existing system; it is accelerating a shift from a rules-based order toward a more fragmented, power-centered one. It intensifies great-power rivalry by creating openings for China and Russia to present themselves as alternative diplomatic and economic actors, while raising doubts about the credibility and consistency of U.S. leadership. At the same time, the war reinforces deterrence logics—especially nuclear ones—as states may read Iran’s vulnerability as evidence that non-nuclear regimes face greater coercive risks. Regionally, the conflict is unlikely to yield a decisive outcome; instead, it entrenches asymmetric warfare, proxy networks, and strategic uncertainty, prolonging instability and diffusing risks across the Middle East and beyond.

Economically, the war is generating significant spillover effects across energy markets, trade routes, and regional financial systems. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil flows—have driven up energy prices, increased shipping costs, and added to global inflationary pressures. For countries like Turkey, the impact is particularly acute. As an energy importer with deep trade ties to the Middle East, it faces rising import costs, currency strain, and greater exposure to regional instability, even as it may gain limited opportunities through rerouted trade or expanded energy transit roles, such as the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline. More broadly, institutions like the IMF and WTO warn that prolonged volatility could slow global growth, raise risk premiums, and accelerate the geopolitical restructuring of supply chains. Overall, the conflict is not just a regional crisis but a driver of a more securitized, segmented, and risk-sensitive global economic order.

This article is originally published in Ijtihad.org as a part of a larger series titles as "Global Perspectives: US-Israel War on Iran."